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<< Previous Next >> -------------------- December 28, 2007 ’08 will be great
When the ball drops at 12:00 in New York City on Jan. 1 2008, it will be with mixed emotions for many NBA fans. Seattle faithful; it’s OK to shed a wistful tear for your likely-last NBA New Year. Boston fans – kiss somebody, everybody, anybody! You deserve to celebrate after an incredible ’07. Chicago fans… well, remember to designate a driver. But to all fans, remember – it’s a new year. Yesterday means nothing. The turn of the calendar brings a fresh chance for your team to re-establish dominance, climb out of the cellar, or make that move that kicks it out of mediocrity. 2008 promises to be a fun year, for a number of reasons. Here are the major ones: The race for the playoffs. No, it’s not too early to start postseason jostling, especially not in the West, where 10 or 11 quality teams are fighting for eight playoff spots. The NBA’s hottest squad, for example, is Portland, winners of 11 straight games, just four games behind the conference’s No. 1 seed, and the Blazers are STILL in an all-out brawl to hold onto the No. 7 slot. In the West, San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix are definitely playing more than 82 games. L.A. Lakers, Denver, and Utah (yes, I know the Jazz have lost 7 of 10, but they’ve had the most away games – 18 – of any team in the conference this early and are coached by Jerry Sloan, basketball’s version of Bobby “Postseason” Cox) are probably going. That leaves New Orleans, Houston, Portland, Golden State, and POSSIBLY Sacramento toothing-and-nailing it out for two spots, in that order of probability. Look for Golden State to be the odd man out because A) team MVP Baron Davis hasn’t missed a start yet, and when he misses his annual 20+ (Davis has played 50, 67, 46, 54, and 63 games the last five seasons), Golden State should feel it in the standings, and B) slow-down teams tend to fare better in the playoffs, and plenty of opponents will need to treat the season’s last month like playoff basketball. In the East, look for the gap between the haves and the have nots to widen. Boston (mark your calendars for Feb. 8 – KG returns to Minnesota – and March 17 – the Celtics travels to San Antonio for a matchup of each conferences’ best) has feasted on 15 home games to help inflate the early record, it’s true, the team’s obviously the terror of the east coast. Further down in the standings, it’s fathomable even the conference’s worst team, the Heat (8-21) could pull it together for a postseason run, while New York and New Jersey (the trade deadline for a Kidd move is Feb. 21) face tough sledding. Neither is currently in the East’s top 8 despite playing 16 home games already and facing mediocre opponents (48.7% and 48.3% strength of schedule, respectively) thus far. The races for awards. Though there’s plenty of basketball to be played, 2008 should see some pretty hellacious finishes to the annual awards. Though the Sixth Man of the Year award (Manu Ginobili) and Rookie of the Year (Kevin Durant) contests appear all but over, the Most Improved Player, Defensive Player of the Year, and MVP races feature whole lineups of worthy competitors. We’ll delve into just one of them hear, to wet your appetite. The Most Improved Player award could rationally be handed to at least eight parties right now (Chris Kaman, Andrew Bynum, Chris Paul, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Mike Dunleavy, Rudy Gay, and the entire Portland Trailblazers’ roster). An entire team won’t win the award, obviously, and stars who become superstars are typically viewed as ‘too good’ to begin with to win this award, so that pares the list down to Kaman, Bynum, Dunleavy, and Gay. Memphis is addicted to losses that nobody watches anyway, so unless Gay really lights it up, he’s likely out.
I give the edge to Bynum, for two reasons. First, he’s not benefitting from a system tailor-made for his talents, like Dunleavy is. The 20-year-old center is genuinely improved, whereas the 27-year-old guard/forward’s numbers are more likely to slide back if he were forced to showcase his ‘improvement’ in a different system. Second, Bynum is a difference-maker at both ends, whereas Dunleavy’s talents lie primarily in his offense. Among players getting at least 25 minutes per game, only Marcus Camby, Josh Smith, Samuel Dalembert, and Kaman are averaging more blocks per minute than the Lakers’ enforcer. In fact, among players averaging at least 25.0 minutes for at least 70 games while 20 years or younger, Bynum is on pace to join Shaquille O’Neal (1992-93), Josh Smith (2005-06), Tyrus Thomas (2006-07), and Andrei Kirilenko (2001-02) as the only players in basketball history to average as many blocks per minute, according to basketball-reference.com. Pretty impressive stuff for a guy known more for conditioning concerns than defensive ability entering this season. This is definitely a race to watch down the stretch. The race for history. Boston’s ongoing challenge to the single-season record of 72 wins is well documented. What’s less discussed is Minnesota’s ongoing challenge to the single-season record of 73 losses. Boston, at 22-3, seems to have the early advantage with a winning percentage of 88.0% that puts it on pace for 72.2 wins. Minnesota, on the other hand, is off-track even in its pursuit of being the most off-track NBA team ever. The Wolves are 4-22 as of early Wednesday evening, a winning percentage of 15.4% that projects them to finish with 69.4 losses. The strong early play of Al Jefferson (20.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 49.6% shooting) will likely keep Minnesota from infamy, but if the injury bug bites Big Al, things could get real interesting north of Iowa. Claustrophobic playoff races, keenly sought individual awards, and potentially the greatest and worst NBA teams together in one season. Good thing it’s a leap year. E-mail HoopsCorner writer Tyson Wirth at tyson-wirth@uiowa.edu << Previous Next >> 2007-08 archive © 2001-2008 H o o p s C o r n e r . c o m, All rights reserved Terms of service Privacy policy Contact |
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