The NBA: Why you should care

H o o p s C o r n e r . c o m

HoopsCorner

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December 24, 2007

In the last week, basketball fans have been caught star-gazing. The Pistons battled the Celtics. The Mavericks prevailed over the Suns. And the NBA’s then-top two scorers, Lebron James and Kobe Bryant, went jersey-to-jersey in Cleveland. Drama that makes A Few Good Men look tame, to be sure. Yet several other teams – mostly in small market areas – are playing compelling basketball virtually unnoticed.

That changes today, as HoopsCorner.com highlights the five NBA teams with the lowest play-to-pub ratio. We’ll focus on those clubs playing decent ball sans love from the national media. So even though the Spice Girls still get more buzz than the Minnesota Timberwolves, their 4-21 record precludes them from being discussed here. In reverse order of quality-to-publicity rank, the list is:

5. Memphis Grizzlies, 8-18
Memphis owns the second-fewest wins in the Western Conference (8), got blown out by Detroit 94-67 on Friday, and has lost 8 of 10. So how does it make this list?

For one thing, injuries. Starters Pau Gasol, Darko Milicic, and No. 4 overall pick Mike Conley Jr. have all missed substantial time so far. For another, Memphis has lost more than its share of close contests, including six by a 3-pointer or less. For contrasts’ sake, Seattle, the West’s other eight-win team, has lost just two such games. The Grizzlies are, at least, competitive in most matchups while playing the fourth-toughest strength of schedule (52.3% opponents’ winning percentage) thus far.

On offense, in fact, they’re more than competitive. Fast breaks are leading to good looks and a 55.8% true shooting percentage (field goal percentage adjusted for three-pointers and free throws), seventh-best in the league behind six teams averaging 18.3 wins and 7.8 losses. The playoffs are a tall order in the West, but if Memphis’ young nucleus of Rudy Gay (21), Gasol (27), Milicic (22) and Conley (20) can improve the defense and stay healthy, they’ll have a dark horse’s shot.

4. Indiana Pacers, 14-13
No team’s playing as mediocre as Indiana (104.9 points per game, 104.8 given up) in the entire league right now… which is great news for a team supposed to be a bottom-feeder this season. That’s not quite consolation to Indiana fans hoping to build on a 41-41 record in 2006-07, but that was never likely given the general upgrade of talent in the East.

The problem is this; the Pacers have faced more cupcakes this early season than Ann Coulter at a face-your-fears retreat. Indiana’s 47.6% strength of schedule is third-easiest in the league, something that should become incrementally tougher if/when division rivals Cleveland and Chicago get back on track. Still, a winning record is a winning record, and Indiana has managed to build one.

Mike Dunleavy, in particular, is thriving in Indiana’s system; he’s averaging career-highs of 17.9 points, 49.1 FG%, 84.8 FT%, and 3.2 assists. Again though, enthusiasm must be tempered – the former Dukie’s marks of 42.2% on 3-pointers and 84.8% on free throws are well above any previous barometers, and are likely to gradually slide back to earth as the season wears on.

3. Atlanta Hawks, 14-12
If the playoffs began today, the East would feature the big 2 ½ (Boston, Detroit, and Orlando) at the top and Atlanta as the conference’s No. 4 seed with homecourt advantage against the Raptors – pretty heady stuff for a franchise with annual reservations at the draft lottery. Of course, the playoffs don’t begin today and the fact Atlanta’s given up slightly more points (94.9 per game) than it’s scored (94.5) might eventually catch up to it. But this slow-paced squad from Atlanta is undeniably on the rise.

The largest reason is the continued improvement of forward Josh Smith, who is demanding an All-Star selection by averaging 17.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.2 blocks, 1.9 steals, and 3.6 assists per game. The 22-year-old is still figuring out his offense (40.8% field goal percentage), but more than compensates with his all-around contributions.

Another plus is rookie Al Horford, whose ability to play power forward or center gives coach Mike Woodson lineup flexibility. If Horford keeps averaging 31 minutes per game, he’ll lose his game of chicken with the rookie wall, but thus far has been only consistent.

2. Toronto Raptors, 15-13
Much has been made about the Raptors’ new “up-tempo” offense – I was taken in too, I’ll admit – the reality is they’ve been one of the NBA’s more patient teams, using possessions at just the 25th-fastest pace in the league. Perhaps it just seems like they play fast, because they still get a fair number of shots – it’s the low turnovers (11.9% of Toronto’s possessions end in a turnover, third-best in the league) that keeps the offense efficient.

Another not-sexy-but-critical-component of Toronto’s success; it doesn’t grant opponents’ second chances. The Raptors are third in the NBA – behind San Antonio and Boston, no less – in defensive rebound rate, snaring a full 75.7% of opponents’ misses. That may not seem important, but for a team that’s just average defensively, it’s a big deal not to give the other team a lot of looks.

Toronto’s biggest Achilles’ Heal is actually its Achilles’ neck and spine – standout guard T.J. Ford’s basketball career is clouded again after a Dec. 11 injury when struck on the head by Horford. Jose Calderon (14.4 points, 11.1 assists, 1.6 turnovers, and 50.9% shooting over the last five) is a more than capable starter in Ford’s absence, but there’s absolutely nobody capable of playing the point behind the Spaniard, which has to make fans North of the border shiver.

1. Portland Trailblazers, 15-12
Portland has probably received the most attention of the teams on this list, but still nowhere close to the amount its recent play merits. The Trailblazers 10th win in a row Friday night marked just the second time in league history a 50-loss team has strung together that long of a streak the following season. And this is without No. 1 pick Greg Oden, and with home games against Seattle and Minnesota next on the schedule.

True, Portland has played seven of the streak’s ten games at home. But it’s also true that no one in the league’s played a more grueling schedule than this gang (oops, that was the Trailblazers of old...), who sport a 54.3% opponent winning percentage.

There’s plenty of credit for spreading, but the most goes to second-year man Brandon Roy, who’s averaging 21.8 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.3 rebounds in December. 23-year-old Travis Outlaw (12.3 points), 21-year-old Martell Webster (11.7 points), 22-year-old LaMarcus Aldridge (18.5 points), the 23-year-old Roy and the promise of the 19-year-old Oden gives Portland the NBA’s brightest future.

For all the optimism, however… expect Portland to narrowly miss the playoffs. Even after this magical streak, it’s still 8th in the West with Utah and Houston on its heels. But, like all the teams mentioned here, expect the Trailblazers to earn more and more attention as the season wears on.

E-mail HoopsCorner writer Tyson Wirth at tyson-wirth@uiowa.edu

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