The All-Stars of Tomorrow - HoopsCorner.com

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January 14, 2008

It’s Feb. 15, 2008. Al Horford snares a defensive rebound and outlets to Mike Conley Jr., who takes one look up court and flicks the ball ahead to a streaking Jamario Moon on the sideline. Moon finds Joakim Noah filling the lane and Noah touch passes the rock to a where-did-he-come-from trailer – Kevin Durant, who throws down a monster windmill and sends thousands of fans to their feet in New Orleans Arena.

Believe it or not, the All-Star Weekend Rookie Challenge and that potential scene are only a month away. It’s time to evaluate who among this season’s crop of newcomers deserves to play. While it’s still waaaay too early to label guys gems or busts, we do have more game experience to examine and judge than we had when building expectations on draft day.

In that spirit, I’ve pieced together what team I think would give the rookie crop its best chance to defeat the sophomores for the first time since 2002. This lineup is not necessarily the five highest-producing rookies up to this point, but the group that’s shown the best mixture of skills/know-how/and potential to become a quality team on-the-fly next month:

Center: Al Horford

Subs: Sean Williams/Glen Davis/Aaron Gray

Though Horford’s the real deal, Williams and Davis give one pause before putting this in ink. Williams’ raptor-like wingspan on (see his eight-block game against Sacramento on Dec. 18) is a difference-maker for New Jersey’s defense, while Davis has quietly done quite well with garbage minutes in Boston. Horford, though, has been performing admirably against first-team centers all season, plugging in 9.1 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks per game. The former Gator is likely the biggest threat to Durant’s Rookie of the Year trophy, which sources say David Stern has kept stored in the Supersonic’s garage since Greg Oden underwent season-ending surgery in September.

Power forward: Joakim Noah

Subs: Yi Jianlian/Luis Scola

This was the toughest position to pick. Yi’s the best offensive player at this position and just earned Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month honors for December, while Noah’s per-minute numbers are the best among ALL significantly-contributing rookies… the catch, of course, is that’s been accomplished in pretty limited minutes (12.6 MPG in 25 contests). Scola, meanwhile, has elements of both - a pretty decent offensive player who’s played inconsistent minutes.

Noah gets the nod because his play just demands it – even with interim Bulls coach Jim Boylan apparently eager to shorten the rotation after Scott Skiles’ departure, Noah exploded for 17 points, six rebounds, four assists, two steals, and a block in a win at Charlotte on Wednesday… in only 18 minutes. That kind of play, and the energy with which it’s executed, could force Boylan to start surrendering more playing time to the rook. A few extra minutes of rest each night doesn’t figure to hurt the 33-year-old Ben Wallace.

Small forward: Jamario Moon

Subs: Jeff Green/Jared Dudley/Corey Brewer/Al Thornton

Moon is another energy guy who’s statistics don’t share his true value… he does still own some pretty impressive statistics, though. For example, from Nov. 16 to Dec. 19, Moon blocked at least one shot in 19 straight games. The CBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2006-07 won’t wow anybody with his offensive numbers, but as he’s just now sniffing the NBA at the ripe age of 27, the intensity which got him here doesn’t figure to subside anytime soon. Green, who may be in Seattle’s starting lineup for a while after averaging 16 points his last three contests, is a nice option off the bench. Dudley’s intensity and rebounding make him feasible, as well.

Shooting guard: Kevin Durant

Subs: Daequan Cook/Juan Carlos Navarro/Rodney Stuckey

I’m not ready to appoint Durant the next king of the league, as some have been for the past full year, but he’s undeniably been the most impressive rookie thus far. While drawing the opponent’s top defender every night, he’s poured in 20.0 points per game. The rebounding numbers (4.3 in 33.1 minutes) are disappointing in light of what he did at Texas (11.1 in 35.9 minutes), but let’s not be too harsh – the kid’s a skinny 19-year-old. Stuckey’s just now getting healthy, but watch for him to get plenty of minutes to develop if Detroit keeps blowing out opponents.

Point guard: Mike Conley Jr.

Subs: None

This is easily the shallowest rookie position. Conley’s barely played thus far, but gets the nod by default as the next most effective first-year candidates, Houston’s Aaron Brooks and Atlanta’s Acie Law, barely qualify themselves. Brooks has played passably in just 99 total minutes while Law boasts a player efficiency rating of just 6.78, according to ESPN (the league average is 15.00).

Conley, though, has made the most of his limited opportunities. He’s played in just six games because of a shoulder injury, but made his first start Wednesday at Indiana and logged a quality all-around game with seven points, six rebounds, eight assists, three steals, and just one turnover. Not superstar numbers, but definitely respectable. For his six-game “season,” Conley owns a 4.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, sparkling for any player, but especially so for a rookie.

There’s plenty of season – and career – left for all these guys to change their standing. But after nearly one half of the NBA season, these five players deserve to start in the Feb. 15 Rookie Challenge.

E-mail HoopsCorner writer Tyson Wirth at tyson-wirth@uiowa.edu

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